Quantifying Hope: Cubs Still Boast 84 Percent Playoff Odds
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The general downward trend of that blue line makes you think it’s due for one of those blue pills, but it’s still significantly more encouraging that the hogswallop of the other four teams in the Central. Seriously, this is just a garbage division. Consider that 83.8 percent playoff odds put the Cubs well ahead of their division opponents, yet still sees them behind the Rockies and D-backs, neither of whom leads their own division.
That’s all according to FanGraphs, but Baseball Prospectus isn’t quite as high on the Cubs. And by “not quite as high,” I mean almost 20 points lower. BP has the Cubs at a mere 66.4 percent chance to reach the postseason on the strength of 85.9 wins. That’s not far off of FanGraphs’ projection of 88.5, though BP is a little more bullish on the Brewers.
Reaching either of those win totals would require the Cubs to go 52-37 (.584) or 49-40 (.550) from here on out, both of which would represent significantly better winning percentages than what we’ve seen from them thus far. Neither is out of the realm of possibility, though, and all they need to do is get into the crazy roller coaster that is the NL playoffs. As such, the Cubs actually have pretty serious World Series odds (11 percent on FG, 7.8 percent on BP).
All things considered, this is about the best you could expect from a team that has yet to generate enough momentum to escape the orbit of a .500 mark. Once they do, however, they could really take off.