The Cubs have only tipped over .500 by four games at most this year. Yet despite the 39-37 record the team sports going into Tuesday’s contest against the Nationals, both their pythagorean record and BaseRuns record point to more wins.
The Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball, a Bill James brainchild that converts run differential to record, suggests the Cubs should really be 41-35. And BaseRuns, which converts expected run value to record, also hints at a 40-36 record.
Much has been made about the Cubs’ lack of timely hits, but their expected run production (4.67 runs per game) actually lines up with what they’ve scored (4.63 runs per game). Going forward, the defending World Series champions might see better days and catch a few breaks if this type of play, even though it’s a notch below last year, continues.