Stephen Strasburg Deal Blows Past Predictions, Continues Good Offseason for Players

The Nationals have re-signed Stephen Strasburg to a seven-year, $245 million dollar deal that set at least a temporary record with $35 million in average annual value. The deal is well above what most predicted Strasburg would fetch on the open market and it continues a strong run of early free agent deals exceeding crowd-sourced predictions.

With 15 of the top 50 free agent now signed, average contracts have surpassed expectations by an average of $14 million in total value $1.67 million of AAV. Some of this discrepancy is likely a function of pessimistic predictions following two sluggish free agency periods, but it also may mean that teams are finally spending. If so, the 2019 free agent market may save baseball from a 2022 strike.

Either that or the owners are collectively lulling the union into a false sense of security before the two sides head to the collective bargaining table.

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